This project will study the geopolitical significance of the energy resources in the High North.
The volume of petroleum extraction in the High North might rise substantially in the course of the next decades. Russia is first in line to develop major new resources, but the estimates for other regions – in Canadian, US, Danish, and Norwegian waters – are significant, if still highly uncertain.

At the same time, increasing demand for energy worldwide, especially in developing economies, and threats to the stability and security of existing supplies of energy, make exploration of Arctic energy resources important. There is reason to assume that the energy resources in the Arctic are significant even seen in a global perspective, and many politicians and observers are of the opinion that the region will assume great importance in global thinking on energy security. The following sets of questions will be of particular interest to the Work Package:

• How does the Arctic compares with other energy regions both politically and economically? Extraction costs, infrastructure, transportation and environmental and climate impacts are all important factors.

• What are the oil companies’ interests and attitudes towards the energy resources in the High North? We foresee vivid participation and dialogue with commercial actors in this project.

• Energy rich regions are usually seen as infused with political conflicts. Building on findings from research within other parts of the Work Package, an empirical comparison of the High North oil region with political cooperation and conflict in other energy regions will be conducted.

• The falling costs of liquefied gas transportation shows signs of integrating different regional gas markets. This is of importance for the economic viability of gas resources in the High North. To sell gas profitably, High North gas would either need to displace existing gas deliveries to Europe, or find new market, presumably using tankers to transport the gas overseas. The study of the geopolitical aspects of the gas resources of the High North will be related to this strategic condition. 

Participants:

• Prof Dag Harald Claes (UiO)
• Senior Fellow Arild Moe (FNI)
• Senior Research Fellow Lars Gulbrandsen (FNI)
• Senior Advisor Morten Anker (Econ)
• Senior Fellow David Pumphrey (CSIS)
• Research Fellow Kristine Offerdal (IFS)